The Church in 2020: What's Coming in the Next Decade?

Guest Blog by Sam S. Rainer

A new year inevitably brings forecasts of what's to come in the next 365 days. A new decade invites even more prognostications. Next year the 2010 census will emphasize demographic shifts. When compared to other items often measured by statistics – like equity markets or energy prices – demographic changes occur slowly. But the census will spotlight changes that have been occurring gradually for years. These shifts will affect how the church does ministry. Let me share with you four of them that will be prominent in the next ten years.

A different type of suburb. Almost half of the U.S. population lives in the suburbs. And sprawling suburbia is changing. The suburbs are graying, and there is a movement to make them more compact.

While large tracts of single-family homes are not being demolished, struggling shopping centers and vacant land in the suburbs are being converted into dense, mixed-use neighborhoods. In short, the 'burbs are getting a retrofit. The movement is driven by the changing life demands of the Boomers. The senior population is expected to increase 36% between 2010 and 2020, driven mainly by the aging Boomer population. The retrofit trend is expensive and will not explode overnight (especially in the current economy). Every suburb will not get a makeover, but the trend will become more prevalent over the next several years.

A different kind of senior. Boomers will become the new "seniors." How senior adult ministry was done with the previous generation, however, will not be as favorable with the Boomer generation. There is just as large a generation gap between the Boomers and the Greatest Generation as there is between Boomers and their children. And the massive growth of aging Boomers will occur in areas unaccustomed to housing older people, specifically in the suburbs of metro areas. The metro areas that are expected to gray the fastest are in the intermountain West, the Southeast, and Texas. The senior population will expand by as much as 70% in some of these places.

A different kind of preschooler. The U.S. population is predicted to turn minority white by 2042, but the preschool population will cross this point in 2021. Diversity is spreading out geographically, and it is becoming younger. As preschools become more diverse, churches must prepare for a different type of ministry to children. While the year 2021 is over a decade away, many communities are already beginning to see these types of changes in the preschools and grade schools.

A different attitude about homogeneity. As the younger generation ages, they will not be represented by the homogeneous unit principle that was championed in the early years of the church growth movement. Basically, this principle states that people desire to worship and serve in churches with similar people, and the best way to reach people is with others who are similar. Clearly, people with common interests, characteristics, life stages, and languages will still gravitate towards each other. The difference with the younger generation is that these divides will not be as distinct, specifically in ethnic terms. And, in many ways, they will recognize heterogeneity in church settings as more normative and more relevant.